Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220707 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    110.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  24.5  25.6  21.7  16.8  15.0  13.7  15.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         48.0  49.8  48.0  39.3  17.9   5.7   0.9  -1.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0  -7.0  12.0  -5.0 -12.0  14.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  49.0  41.0  40.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   5.0  10.0   5.0   6.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        0.6%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.80

 EP042022 220707 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    110.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.