Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220707 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    111.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  25.1  21.5  19.0  16.1  15.1  15.4  18.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.8  51.2  44.3  33.6  14.8   8.7   5.0   0.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0  17.0  -9.0 -23.0  27.0   7.0   3.0 -14.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  54.0  53.0  44.0  42.0  39.0  36.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0  11.0   8.0   3.0   9.0   2.0  12.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.4%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.54

 EP042022 220707 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    111.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.