Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220707 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    113.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  21.2  21.1  21.7  15.6  16.9  17.9  23.6  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.0  44.3  33.6  22.9  10.7   5.9   2.4   3.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   7.0   1.0 -25.0  28.0   6.0  12.0 -39.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  51.0  49.0  42.0  40.0  34.0  32.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   8.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.0%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.20

 EP042022 220707 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    113.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.