Rapid Intensification Guidance EP042022 220707 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 114.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 71.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 63.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 72.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.0 20.5 20.3 16.8 18.1 17.1 18.9 24.1 N N N F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 46.0 36.5 24.2 17.0 9.7 5.0 2.4 6.8 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 10.0 -10.0 -5.0 13.0 0.0 -21.0 -2.0 U U U U U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 51.0 49.0 45.0 40.0 36.0 31.0 28.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 -3.0 7.0 1.0 N N N N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.9% 1.6% 2.8% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.5% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.76 EP042022 220707 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 114.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.