Rapid Intensification Guidance EP042022 220708 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 116.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 38.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.6 19.1 17.5 18.8 18.2 16.6 20.4 22.8 N N F N F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 33.6 24.2 14.8 10.7 5.0 2.4 3.3 7.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 -33.0 -27.0 -1.0 24.0 22.0 -33.0 -25.0 U VU VU U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 49.0 44.0 41.0 39.0 33.0 29.0 27.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 0.0 -1.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 4.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.9% 0.7% 1.3% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.02 EP042022 220708 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 116.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.