Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220708 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    117.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  19.1  19.9  21.5  17.6  19.0  22.8  29.9  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         29.2  20.9  17.7  14.7  10.9   7.4  12.8  16.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  -6.0  -3.0   2.0   4.0 -10.0   9.0  -9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  44.0  41.0  40.0  36.0  32.0  29.0  28.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -2.0   3.0   6.0   0.0   4.0   4.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.2%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.56

 EP042022 220708 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    117.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.