Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042022 220708 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    119.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  22.2  22.5  21.8  18.3  23.7  32.2  39.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         32.0  28.8  25.7  22.8  19.1  20.9  25.7  29.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   6.0 -11.0  22.0 -11.0   5.0  -1.0 -38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  42.0  41.0  39.0  34.0  32.0  30.0  24.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   6.0   2.0   0.0   5.0   7.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.16

 EP042022 220708 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    119.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.