Rapid Intensification Guidance EP042022 220709 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.00 122.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 46.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.3 19.1 18.1 19.1 26.1 32.8 40.2 40.2 N N F N N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 39.7 36.8 35.9 33.3 35.9 40.7 43.8 43.8 U U U VU U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 3.0 20.0 27.0 0.0 -22.0 -68.0 -68.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 40.0 35.0 33.0 30.0 29.0 23.0 23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 7.0 3.0 0.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.48 EP042022 220709 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.00 122.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.