Rapid Intensification Guidance EP042022 220709 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 124.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.90 F TC SIZE [%] 54.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.8 18.2 20.3 24.2 31.9 36.0 40.7 40.7 N F N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 42.8 40.9 38.3 38.3 42.8 47.7 50.9 50.9 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 12.0 13.0 -22.0 -25.0 -22.0 -84.0 -84.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 34.0 33.0 32.0 31.0 27.0 23.0 23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.30 EP042022 220709 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 124.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.