Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052022 220710 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    115.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  20.5  18.9  19.7  19.1  16.7  17.6  17.4  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  19.0  24.0  17.0  10.0   4.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.3 110.7 106.5 104.4 102.4  93.0  79.6  69.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  43.0  65.0  59.0  48.0  46.0  15.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  72.0  69.0  66.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        2.4%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%       12.6%        8.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        5.1%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%        4.9%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%        4.9%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       13.3%        8.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.3%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.6%        3.6%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        3.1%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        3.8%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 EP052022 220710 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    115.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  20.5  18.9  19.7  19.1  16.7  17.6  17.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  72.0  69.0  66.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%