Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052022 220710 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    116.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  17.3  18.5  18.6  18.1  19.2  19.9  22.2  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  24.0  13.0  13.0   6.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.7  96.5  94.4  94.4  92.4  77.7  68.0  54.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  68.0  60.0  46.0  46.0  16.0  44.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.8%        5.8%        6.8%
 25kt / 24h       11.9%       22.6%       17.2%
 30kt / 24h        9.3%       12.5%       10.9%
 35kt / 24h        9.3%       12.5%       10.9%
 40kt / 24h        9.3%       12.5%       10.9%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%       21.8%       14.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.6%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        4.6%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        4.2%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 EP052022 220710 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    116.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  17.3  18.5  18.6  18.1  19.2  19.9  22.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%