Rapid Intensification Guidance EP052022 220711 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 121.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 25.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.40 F TC SIZE [%] 46.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.1 13.9 13.5 15.4 17.1 18.7 25.0 29.8 F F F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 10.0 5.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 65.5 65.5 59.8 52.7 43.0 30.4 24.3 27.9 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 41.0 53.0 50.0 29.0 51.0 37.0 1.0 N N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 69.0 69.0 68.0 67.0 63.0 62.0 57.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 4.0 11.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 54.6% 17.2% 35.9% 25kt / 24h 52.9% 26.0% 39.4% 30kt / 24h 52.9% 20.8% 36.8% 35kt / 24h 52.9% 20.8% 36.8% 40kt / 24h 52.9% 20.8% 36.8% 45kt / 36h 15.5% 13.4% 14.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.12 EP052022 220711 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 121.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.