Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052022 220713 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    133.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     35.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  12.4  15.7  20.0  24.8  32.9  32.3  30.3  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.0  27.2  27.2  27.2  24.4  21.7  21.7  27.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  18.0   4.0   5.0   0.0 -30.0 -38.0  -8.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  55.0  54.0  49.0  40.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.74

 EP052022 220713 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    133.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.