Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052022 220714 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    140.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     32.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  31.6  31.4  35.5  30.4  30.9  26.3  26.3  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         16.7  14.2  12.9  12.9  16.7  23.6  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0 -29.0  -2.0 -23.0 -56.0 -65.0 -33.0 -33.0 VU VU  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  51.0  52.0  51.0  43.0  36.0  31.0  31.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   5.0   2.0  10.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.06

 EP052022 220714 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    140.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.