Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052022 220716 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    154.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     39.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  35.0  40.3  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   1.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.5  86.1  91.0  94.4  94.4  94.4  94.4  94.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  13.0 -34.0 -28.0 -28.0 -28.0 -28.0 -28.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   27.0  26.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  27.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   8.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.22

 EP052022 220716 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    154.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.