Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062022 220715 12UTC Storm Located at : 11.80 100.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 52.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.3 22.5 21.7 20.2 15.9 18.3 17.6 21.6 N N N N F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 26.0 27.0 27.0 25.0 20.0 14.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 127.3 108.5 F F F F F F N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 51.0 111.0 105.0 108.0 158.0 150.0 164.0 131.0 N F F F VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 74.0 76.0 78.0 78.0 79.0 81.0 82.0 N N F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -2.0 -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 -4.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.4% 3.0% 2.2% 25kt / 24h 12.0% 31.2% 21.6% 30kt / 24h 4.5% 14.7% 9.6% 35kt / 24h 2.1% 14.1% 8.1% 40kt / 24h 2.1% 14.1% 8.1% 45kt / 36h 12.8% 45.0% 28.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 21.8% 10.9% 55kt / 48h 29.1% 34.2% 31.6% 70kt / 48h 11.2% 26.4% 18.8% 65kt / 72h 37.9% 47.0% 42.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.64 EP062022 220715 12UTC Storm Located at : 11.80 100.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.3 22.5 21.7 20.2 15.9 18.3 17.6 21.6 N N N N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 74.0 76.0 78.0 78.0 79.0 81.0 82.0 N N U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -2.0 -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 -4.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%