Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062022 220715 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    100.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  20.7  18.5  19.1  18.2  26.7  25.3  28.2  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  19.0  15.0   9.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 134.3 127.3 118.6 103.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0 115.0 106.0 106.0 178.0 163.0 168.0  51.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  80.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -9.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        3.1%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h       15.7%       35.8%       25.8%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%       17.6%       11.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.3%       17.2%        9.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       17.2%        9.3%
 45kt / 36h       15.4%       50.5%       32.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       26.2%       13.1%
 55kt / 48h       25.3%       30.2%       27.7%
 70kt / 48h       10.9%       23.5%       17.2%
 65kt / 72h       25.8%       31.4%       28.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 EP062022 220715 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    100.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  20.7  18.5  19.1  18.2  26.7  25.3  28.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  80.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -9.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%