Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062022 220716 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    101.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  19.6  18.9  17.1  25.9  27.6  26.2  22.6  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  26.0  26.0  23.0  16.0  15.0   9.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 129.3 130.0 129.3 122.3 107.4 101.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0 103.0 129.0 155.0 179.0 137.0  81.0  45.0  F  F  F VF VF VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  78.0  79.0  80.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        5.3%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h       28.0%       49.2%       38.6%
 30kt / 24h       10.4%       30.8%       20.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%       30.8%       17.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%       29.9%       16.2%
 45kt / 36h       19.9%       54.5%       37.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       30.6%       15.3%
 55kt / 48h       25.5%       33.1%       29.3%
 70kt / 48h        9.6%       23.6%       16.6%
 65kt / 72h       19.3%       27.7%       23.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 EP062022 220716 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    101.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  19.6  18.9  17.1  25.9  27.6  26.2  22.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  78.0  79.0  80.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%