Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062022 220716 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    102.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  18.8  15.9  16.5  24.9  25.4  23.9  25.3  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  25.0  21.0  18.0  16.0  11.0  10.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0 117.0 103.6  95.5  91.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0 117.0 136.0 149.0 118.0 112.0 110.0  89.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0  -2.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.9%       14.4%       15.1%
 25kt / 24h       54.3%       66.5%       60.4%
 30kt / 24h       32.3%       52.5%       42.4%
 35kt / 24h       29.2%       52.5%       40.9%
 40kt / 24h       29.2%       52.5%       40.9%
 45kt / 36h       36.3%       62.1%       49.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       39.5%       19.8%
 55kt / 48h       25.4%       32.2%       28.8%
 70kt / 48h       10.7%       25.6%       18.2%
 65kt / 72h       12.9%       24.2%       18.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.48

 EP062022 220716 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    102.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  18.8  15.9  16.5  24.9  25.4  23.9  25.3  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0  -2.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%