Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062022 220716 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    103.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  11.3  15.5  24.0  26.5  25.9  28.9  30.1  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  28.0  21.0  17.0  18.0  13.0   7.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 102.3  87.4  83.5  74.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0 131.0 152.0 149.0 153.0 119.0  90.0  50.0  F  F VF VF VF  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  80.0  76.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       49.5%       36.0%       42.8%
 25kt / 24h       74.4%       80.4%       77.4%
 30kt / 24h       58.6%       75.4%       67.0%
 35kt / 24h       52.7%       75.4%       64.1%
 40kt / 24h       52.7%       74.8%       63.7%
 45kt / 36h       48.3%       69.3%       58.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       50.0%       25.0%
 55kt / 48h       31.4%       36.6%       34.0%
 70kt / 48h       13.2%       28.3%       20.7%
 65kt / 72h        5.7%       15.3%       10.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.48

 EP062022 220716 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    103.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  11.3  15.5  24.0  26.5  25.9  28.9  30.1  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  80.0  76.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%