Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062022 220716 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.00 103.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 88.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 63.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.3 18.9 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.8 29.8 25.8 F N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 21.0 18.0 18.0 16.0 11.0 6.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 104.3 102.0 90.7 80.5 78.5 64.3 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 108.0 144.0 152.0 129.0 103.0 100.0 58.0 79.0 F VF VF F F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 77.0 78.0 77.0 79.0 75.0 74.0 76.0 F F F F F F N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -5.0 -4.0 -8.0 -4.0 N N N N F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 48.2% 36.5% 42.3% 25kt / 24h 71.0% 76.0% 73.5% 30kt / 24h 50.9% 72.5% 61.7% 35kt / 24h 43.9% 72.5% 58.2% 40kt / 24h 42.0% 70.3% 56.1% 45kt / 36h 40.2% 58.9% 49.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 38.1% 19.1% 55kt / 48h 18.4% 24.6% 21.5% 70kt / 48h 5.2% 15.6% 10.4% 65kt / 72h 2.0% 8.9% 5.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.44 EP062022 220716 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.00 103.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.3 18.9 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.8 29.8 25.8 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 77.0 78.0 77.0 79.0 75.0 74.0 76.0 U U U U U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -5.0 -4.0 -8.0 -4.0 N N N N U U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%