Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062022 220717 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    104.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  23.1  24.9  23.9  24.2  26.0  27.4  23.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  17.0  18.0  18.0  12.0   8.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0  99.3  94.6  92.3  77.4  75.5  66.2  50.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   156.0 159.0 132.0 112.0  92.0  87.0  23.0  96.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  79.0  77.0  79.0  81.0  77.0  78.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -6.0  -3.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       38.7%       26.4%       32.6%
 25kt / 24h       62.0%       65.3%       63.6%
 30kt / 24h       40.9%       59.7%       50.3%
 35kt / 24h       40.6%       59.7%       50.1%
 40kt / 24h       40.6%       58.0%       49.3%
 45kt / 36h       33.1%       36.9%       35.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       18.3%        9.1%
 55kt / 48h       14.4%       14.2%       14.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        6.9%        5.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        4.0%        2.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 EP062022 220717 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    104.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  23.1  24.9  23.9  24.2  26.0  27.4  23.3  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  79.0  77.0  79.0  81.0  77.0  78.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -6.0  -3.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%