Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062022 220717 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    105.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  23.2  22.4  23.4  21.4  24.1  18.7  23.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  18.0  18.0  15.0  10.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.3  92.0  87.3  78.6  70.5  68.5  54.3  38.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0  79.0 115.0 122.0  91.0  44.0  94.0  80.0  F  N  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  80.0  82.0  78.0  76.0  74.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -5.0  -7.0  -1.0  -1.0   3.0  -5.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.6%       25.1%       32.3%
 25kt / 24h       55.0%       57.8%       56.4%
 30kt / 24h       44.8%       53.2%       49.0%
 35kt / 24h       44.8%       53.2%       49.0%
 40kt / 24h       44.8%       51.6%       48.2%
 45kt / 36h       28.1%       29.0%       28.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.5%        6.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%       10.3%        9.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.20

 EP062022 220717 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    105.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  23.2  22.4  23.4  21.4  24.1  18.7  23.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  80.0  82.0  78.0  76.0  74.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -5.0  -7.0  -1.0  -1.0   3.0  -5.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%