Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062022 220717 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  21.4  20.8  18.2  22.2  22.4  21.6  21.7  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  15.0  12.0  11.0   9.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.3  77.9  69.4  63.5  63.5  52.7  35.8  20.9  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  88.0 103.0  83.0  95.0  29.0  80.0  18.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  76.0  76.0  72.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  -4.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0  -5.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       40.4%       20.7%       30.6%
 25kt / 24h       40.8%       43.4%       42.1%
 30kt / 24h       35.1%       39.6%       37.4%
 35kt / 24h       35.1%       39.6%       37.4%
 40kt / 24h       35.1%       38.0%       36.5%
 45kt / 36h       22.0%       20.8%       21.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.4%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h        5.5%        5.2%        5.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 EP062022 220717 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  21.4  20.8  18.2  22.2  22.4  21.6  21.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  76.0  76.0  72.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  -4.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0  -5.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%