Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062022 220717 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    107.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  19.4  20.4  19.4  24.8  21.7  22.8  18.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  11.0  10.0   9.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.9  67.4  61.6  59.8  58.0  43.0  27.9  11.8  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    95.0 114.0 119.0  77.0  41.0  87.0  86.0   5.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  F  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  82.0  81.0  78.0  74.0  74.0  72.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0   2.0  -2.0   2.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.9%        9.0%       13.0%
 25kt / 24h       20.5%       21.4%       21.0%
 30kt / 24h       14.8%       15.2%       15.0%
 35kt / 24h       12.3%       15.2%       13.8%
 40kt / 24h       12.3%       15.2%       13.8%
 45kt / 36h        8.8%        6.9%        7.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 EP062022 220717 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    107.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  19.4  20.4  19.4  24.8  21.7  22.8  18.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  82.0  81.0  78.0  74.0  74.0  72.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0   2.0  -2.0   2.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%