Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062022 220718 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  18.4  17.6  18.9  20.1  21.4  17.2  16.7  N  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  10.0   9.0   9.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.4  64.8  63.0  63.0  56.0  40.8  24.8  11.6  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0 121.0  66.0  84.0  34.0 113.0  71.0  14.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  82.0  78.0  77.0  77.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0   3.0  -3.0   4.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        1.8%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        4.2%        6.3%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        3.2%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        3.2%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        3.2%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        2.1%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.20

 EP062022 220718 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.