Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062022 220718 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  17.7  16.1  16.0  16.9  16.4  17.6  14.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   9.0   8.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.4  59.4  57.7  57.7  43.6  28.2  15.0   5.4  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  41.0  70.0  50.0  69.0 105.0  46.0  -2.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  76.0  76.0  73.0  74.0  70.0  68.0  63.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.2%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        3.9%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        2.0%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        1.9%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        1.9%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        1.7%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.76

 EP062022 220718 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.