Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062022 220718 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    110.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  16.2  16.6  14.6  14.1  16.2  18.3  13.9  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   6.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.4  68.5  66.6  61.2  43.6  24.8  12.4   2.7  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  50.0  66.0  55.0  86.0  63.0  -2.0 -21.0  U  N  N  N  F  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  73.0  75.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  61.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -7.0  -8.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.2%        4.5%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.8%       12.6%        9.7%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%        8.1%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.9%        8.1%        6.5%
 40kt / 24h        4.9%        8.0%        6.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%        6.0%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.26

 EP062022 220718 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    110.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.