Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062022 220718 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.10 111.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 61.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 51.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.0 17.3 14.6 13.1 15.3 16.9 15.1 16.2 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 68.5 64.8 59.4 51.1 32.9 16.8 7.6 1.4 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 62.0 81.0 58.0 69.0 89.0 19.0 -29.0 11.0 N N N N F U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 73.0 73.0 72.0 71.0 67.0 60.0 59.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -10.0 -6.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 F F F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.1% 3.4% 4.8% 25kt / 24h 5.2% 9.2% 7.2% 30kt / 24h 3.8% 5.6% 4.7% 35kt / 24h 2.9% 5.6% 4.2% 40kt / 24h 2.9% 5.5% 4.2% 45kt / 36h 2.8% 4.4% 3.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.92 EP062022 220718 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.10 111.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.