Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062022 220719 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 113.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.1 14.0 13.2 12.2 15.1 18.8 14.0 15.8 F F F F F N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.6 66.2 57.7 48.6 30.9 17.4 8.4 6.4 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 83.0 72.0 87.0 107.0 55.0 -9.0 -10.0 20.0 N N F F N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 74.0 72.0 72.0 70.0 65.0 65.0 58.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -5.0 0.0 1.0 -4.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 F F N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 25kt / 24h 1.8% 4.5% 3.2% 30kt / 24h 0.9% 2.3% 1.6% 35kt / 24h 0.8% 2.1% 1.5% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 2.1% 1.5% 45kt / 36h 0.6% 2.2% 1.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.66 EP062022 220719 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 113.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.