Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062022 220719 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.40 114.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 41.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 21.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.10 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.0 16.3 15.1 16.0 17.2 17.5 15.9 14.2 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 76.2 67.7 58.6 50.4 32.8 22.6 17.1 15.8 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 68.0 74.0 99.0 88.0 -5.0 -18.0 24.0 19.0 N N F F U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 72.0 72.0 71.0 67.0 62.0 58.0 55.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 3.0 0.0 -8.0 2.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 F N N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.22 EP062022 220719 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.40 114.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.