Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062022 220719 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    115.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  18.4  20.3  16.5  18.9  15.0  17.2  15.1  F  F  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.7  58.6  49.2  39.8  26.6  20.4  16.4  17.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0 108.0  93.0  39.0 -15.0  11.0   1.0  -2.0  N  F  F  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  63.0  61.0  54.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0 -12.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.60

 EP062022 220719 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    115.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.