Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062022 220719 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.30 116.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 54.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.6 18.8 16.2 18.3 16.9 15.9 15.1 21.7 F N F F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 54.4 45.5 37.7 30.0 22.6 17.1 17.1 18.4 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 100.0 109.0 45.0 -3.0 -17.0 1.0 -18.0 -11.0 F F N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 69.0 69.0 66.0 59.0 56.0 52.0 49.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -11.0 -5.0 2.0 -3.0 2.0 1.0 5.0 N F F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.70 EP062022 220719 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.30 116.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.