Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062022 220720 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  16.0  19.2  19.6  14.6  16.3  18.6  21.4  F  F  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         43.2  35.7  29.1  25.0  19.1  15.8  16.4  17.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   125.0  41.0   3.0  -2.0  -9.0   5.0 -11.0 -34.0  F  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  67.0  62.0  61.0  53.0  51.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   3.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.84

 EP062022 220720 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    117.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.