Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062022 220720 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    118.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  18.1  19.4  15.7  18.4  17.6  24.6  21.3  F  F  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         41.7  35.0  31.6  28.4  23.4  22.1  22.7  23.4  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0   3.0 -13.0   1.0  19.0 -17.0 -13.0 -36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  63.0  59.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  49.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   3.0   0.0  -3.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   4.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.34

 EP062022 220720 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    118.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.