Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062022 220720 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    120.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  17.4  14.7  17.6  17.1  19.8  22.4  21.3  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         33.3  29.2  26.9  24.1  21.4  20.8  22.7  23.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0   1.0 -13.0  33.0  10.0  30.0 -12.0 -28.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  55.0  54.0  49.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.62

 EP062022 220720 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    120.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.