Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062022 220720 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    121.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  16.3  17.9  19.4  15.3  18.1  17.6  16.2  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         33.4  30.4  28.4  27.7  27.1  27.7  28.4  27.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0   1.0  18.0  19.0   3.0   2.0 -29.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  59.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  48.0  43.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -7.0  -2.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   3.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.10

 EP062022 220720 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    121.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.