Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062022 220721 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    122.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  16.9  19.0  16.3  17.3  17.1  14.2  14.2  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.4  32.7  32.1  32.1  32.7  34.1  33.4  33.4  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  35.0  26.0  19.0  21.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  49.0  46.0  46.0  U  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 21.80

 EP062022 220721 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    122.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.