Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062022 220721 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 123.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 19.3 17.5 15.5 18.6 15.0 17.2 17.2 F N F F N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 37.7 37.1 37.1 37.7 38.4 39.1 39.1 39.1 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 28.0 20.0 7.0 6.0 -19.0 -7.0 -7.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 56.0 53.0 54.0 50.0 47.0 42.0 42.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.62 EP062022 220721 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 123.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.