Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062022 220721 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 125.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.10 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.6 16.9 16.7 16.9 16.3 13.5 16.6 16.6 N F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 41.4 41.4 42.1 42.7 42.7 43.4 42.7 42.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 2.0 -5.0 8.0 -10.0 -4.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 52.0 52.0 52.0 49.0 46.0 42.0 42.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.46 EP062022 220721 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 125.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.