Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062022 220721 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 126.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.40 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.1 16.4 16.9 18.1 14.8 14.6 14.6 14.6 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 43.4 44.7 45.4 44.7 44.7 44.1 44.1 44.1 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 4.0 27.0 28.0 0.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 53.0 51.0 49.0 47.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.84 EP062022 220721 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 126.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.