Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220726 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    101.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  27.7  25.1  25.4  24.1  26.7  20.9  20.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  34.0  28.0  22.0  17.0  18.0  21.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  22.0  76.0  94.0  99.0  68.0  61.0 121.0  U  U  N  F  F  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  69.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%       14.3%        8.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        5.7%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        5.1%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        5.1%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       17.3%        9.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.4%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%       10.3%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        5.1%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h       14.3%       19.3%       16.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 EP072022 220726 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    101.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  27.7  25.1  25.4  24.1  26.7  20.9  20.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  69.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%