Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220726 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    102.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  25.7  27.7  27.6  23.5  29.6  21.2  23.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  31.0  23.0  19.0  18.0  21.0  22.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  63.0  62.0  78.0  82.0  78.0  62.0  92.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  69.0  71.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        2.1%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%       16.3%       10.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        6.3%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        6.0%        3.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        6.0%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       18.6%       11.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.6%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        8.0%        6.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        4.0%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        6.2%       13.5%        9.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 EP072022 220726 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    102.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  25.7  27.7  27.6  23.5  29.6  21.2  23.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  69.0  71.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%