Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220726 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    103.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  29.7  29.5  27.3  29.6  24.8  24.5  24.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  24.0  20.0  18.0  19.0  21.0  23.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  85.0  93.0 101.0  80.0  77.0 104.0 140.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -3.0  -9.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.3%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        4.2%       12.1%        8.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        4.0%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        3.9%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        3.9%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       11.9%        7.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.0%        6.0%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        8.4%       11.8%       10.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 EP072022 220726 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    103.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  29.7  29.5  27.3  29.6  24.8  24.5  24.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -3.0  -9.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%