Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220727 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    103.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.5  34.5  27.3  22.0  25.1  18.2  19.1  14.8  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  21.0  19.0  18.0  21.0  22.0  20.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0  66.0  92.0  82.0  98.0 106.0 140.0 137.0  N  N  F  N  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  75.0  76.0  76.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0  -9.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        7.9%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.3%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.3%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        8.1%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        6.4%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        2.6%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h       18.9%       16.5%       17.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 EP072022 220727 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    103.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.5  34.5  27.3  22.0  25.1  18.2  19.1  14.8  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  75.0  76.0  76.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0  -9.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%