Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220727 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80    104.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.9  27.4  21.4  26.0  23.0  19.1  16.3  16.2  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  18.0  18.0  19.0  21.0  21.0  23.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0 110.0  91.0  84.0 126.0 120.0 112.0 108.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -6.0  -3.0  -9.0  -8.0  -6.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        9.9%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.2%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        3.0%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        3.0%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       10.6%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.7%        8.7%        7.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        3.8%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h       23.7%       20.4%       22.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 EP072022 220727 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80    104.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.9  27.4  21.4  26.0  23.0  19.1  16.3  16.2  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -6.0  -3.0  -9.0  -8.0  -6.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%