Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220727 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    105.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  22.3  26.7  22.9  19.0  20.7  15.6  20.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  23.0  24.0  23.0  23.0  18.0  17.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0  93.0  80.0  99.0  97.0 150.0 142.0 115.0  F  F  N  F  F VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  71.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0  -6.0  -8.0  -6.0  -4.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.3%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%       14.9%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        5.4%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        5.1%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        5.1%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%       17.3%       11.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.8%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h       11.8%       13.0%       12.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        6.2%        4.6%
 65kt / 72h       27.9%       25.3%       26.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 EP072022 220727 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    105.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  22.3  26.7  22.9  19.0  20.7  15.6  20.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  71.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0  -6.0  -8.0  -6.0  -4.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%