Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072022 220727 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    106.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  28.0  24.9  18.9  19.4  18.4  16.6  22.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  21.0  17.0  16.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 119.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  75.0  84.0  94.0 150.0 160.0  81.0 116.0  N  N  N  F VF VF  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0  -1.0  -7.0  -8.0  -7.0  -5.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        2.5%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h       11.2%       24.7%       18.0%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%       11.1%        8.1%
 35kt / 24h        5.1%       11.1%        8.1%
 40kt / 24h        5.1%       11.1%        8.1%
 45kt / 36h       12.3%       28.4%       20.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.2%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h       19.9%       22.3%       21.1%
 70kt / 48h        6.3%       12.5%        9.4%
 65kt / 72h       26.7%       30.2%       28.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.96

 EP072022 220727 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    106.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  28.0  24.9  18.9  19.4  18.4  16.6  22.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0  -1.0  -7.0  -8.0  -7.0  -5.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%