Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072022 220728 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 107.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 38.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.8 25.6 19.1 20.3 19.3 11.9 15.3 21.6 N N N N N F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 17.0 16.0 13.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 105.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 103.0 96.0 110.0 135.0 161.0 138.0 138.0 141.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 73.0 73.0 74.0 76.0 75.0 74.0 78.0 N N N N F F N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -4.0 -5.0 -9.0 -12.0 -6.0 -2.0 -1.0 F F F F F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.1% 5.1% 6.1% 25kt / 24h 26.0% 39.9% 32.9% 30kt / 24h 13.5% 22.9% 18.2% 35kt / 24h 12.4% 22.9% 17.6% 40kt / 24h 12.4% 22.9% 17.6% 45kt / 36h 23.0% 40.3% 31.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 17.7% 8.9% 55kt / 48h 26.9% 32.8% 29.9% 70kt / 48h 10.2% 22.3% 16.2% 65kt / 72h 31.1% 39.2% 35.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.02 EP072022 220728 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 107.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.8 25.6 19.1 20.3 19.3 11.9 15.3 21.6 N N N N N U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 73.0 73.0 74.0 76.0 75.0 74.0 78.0 N N N N U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -4.0 -5.0 -9.0 -12.0 -6.0 -2.0 -1.0 U U U U U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%