Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072022 220728 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 108.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 29.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.1 19.1 22.4 20.8 13.8 14.9 15.5 15.8 N N N N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 23.0 23.0 18.0 17.0 15.0 8.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 112.3 93.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 72.0 79.0 127.0 129.0 100.0 103.0 100.0 116.0 N N F F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 72.0 75.0 75.0 74.0 73.0 72.0 71.0 N N F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -7.0 -10.0 -11.0 -11.0 -7.0 -3.0 -1.0 F F F F F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 25kt / 24h 13.6% 24.2% 18.9% 30kt / 24h 6.7% 10.8% 8.8% 35kt / 24h 6.6% 10.8% 8.7% 40kt / 24h 6.6% 10.8% 8.7% 45kt / 36h 15.3% 24.2% 19.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 7.7% 3.8% 55kt / 48h 19.3% 20.6% 19.9% 70kt / 48h 6.3% 10.6% 8.4% 65kt / 72h 22.6% 22.8% 22.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.08 EP072022 220728 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 108.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.1 19.1 22.4 20.8 13.8 14.9 15.5 15.8 N N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 72.0 75.0 75.0 74.0 73.0 72.0 71.0 N N U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -7.0 -10.0 -11.0 -11.0 -7.0 -3.0 -1.0 U U U U U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%